Institut für Pflanzenschutz in Gartenbau und Forst
SWATopti is a joint project of the Julius Kühn Institute and the Lower Saxony Chamber of Agriculture. The aim of the project is to develop a forecasting model for the cabbage fly, the carrot fly and the bean fly that is ready for use in practice. The user should be able to simulate the expected general risk of infestation and the expected temporal development of infestation for specific fields. The model is to be used as a management tool for both cultivation planning and crop management, e.g. for the scheduling of control measures or the handling of net covers. The forecasting software SWAT will serve as a basis. Its modules for abundance and age structure of the cabbage fly and carrot fly, which are based on Individual-Based-Models (IBM), will be validated on the basis of new and old data sets, sources of error will be eliminated and influential but defective factors will be re-parameterised. In addition, a new module for the bean fly will be developed. At the end of the project, the responsibility for the distribution of the forecast model and its provision via an online platform will be given to ISIP and the continuous evaluation will be taken over by ZEPP. For the development of the models, it is necessary to collect biological data and to close knowledge gaps in the physiology, population dynamics and ecology of the target organisms. For this purpose, the species will be cultivated and development variables will be parameterised under laboratory conditions. In addition, field experiments will be conducted to collect monitoring data on the phenology of the target species and to study spatial population dynamics on a local scale.
Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture
