Institut für Strategien und Folgenabschätzung
Man-made climate change is a long-term threat to the stability of the planet's ecosystems, and with it the stability of human society, through scarcity of water, food and living space. Agricultural food production in particular faces an uncertain future and there is a considerable need for information regarding suitable climate protection strategies. The overarching goal of the project is to identify suitable management measures and operational strategies to optimize plant production in terms of climate protection. The ModOKlim project primarily pursues the following scientific goals: (i) the reliable reproduction of spatial and temporal patterns of productivity of agricultural crops in Germany over the past 30 years with the help of agro-ecosystem models, (ii) the deterministic projection of yield prospects and associated GHG Emissions from agricultural crops in Germany, (iii) the scenario analysis using biophysical and economic models to assess the prospects of success of climate protection strategies in the direction of profitable, climate-adapted and species-rich cultivation systems and (iv) the integration of the current state of science with regard to the probabilistic projection of extreme weather events in the projections of the deterministic models. In its sub-project, the JKI is working on the model-based investigation of G x E x M interactions with a focus on GHG-optimized grain crop rotations and variety selection. It can be assumed that the increase in unfavorable weather conditions will have increasingly negative effects on stand development, yield formation and the need-based supply of nutrients. Using climate projection data, various cultivation scenarios are tested across Germany with the help of agroecosystem models, varying variety types, sowing windows and nitrogen fertilization strategies and evaluated with regard to GHG emissions, yields, water use efficiency, humus enrichment potential and resource use efficiency. For this purpose, agro-ecosystem models and life cycle analysis are integrated.
Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture
